Overview
- A YouGov survey conducted 21–22 December put Reform on 25%, down three points to its lowest level in more than six months, with Labour on 20% and the Conservatives on 19%.
- Sir John Curtice’s month-by-month analysis shows Reform averaging about 29% in December after peaking near 32% in September, marking an unprecedented sustained lead for a third party.
- Curtice reports a fractured five-party landscape with the combined Labour–Conservative vote at a record low and the Greens rising to around 13% after Zack Polanski’s leadership boost.
- Union leaders, including Matt Wrack, call Labour’s tougher immigration stance “utterly doomed,” and the BMA’s Dr Tom Dolphin warns such policies risk harming an NHS reliant on overseas staff.
- Reform’s late-year softening follows reputational headwinds, including Farage’s denied racism and antisemitism allegations, racism rows involving candidates, and the Russia-linked conviction of ex-Wales leader Nathan Gill.