Overview

• New polling shows Reform UK at roughly one-third of voters, including 35% in the City AM/Freshwater survey and 32% in a Find Out Now poll, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.
• Downing Street and the Treasury are reported to be readying an argument that Brexit and Nigel Farage contributed to weaker productivity, framing expected November tax rises as the consequence.
• Treasury outreach to major companies, reported by the Financial Times and City AM, warns that negative economic messaging could further boost Reform’s rise and urges firms to highlight UK strengths.
• Reform’s headline promises face mounting scrutiny, with the IFS estimating a £50–£80bn cost for lifting the personal allowance to £20,000 and tens of billions more for other pledges, while claimed savings are disputed.
• Boris Johnson has predicted Reform’s support will collapse, and independent analysis notes Farage’s path to power is constrained by Reform’s five MPs, fundraising gaps and organisational weaknesses.