Overview

• An Ipsos survey shows Reform UK on 34% of voting intention, with Labour at 25% and the Conservatives at 15%, marking Reform’s highest support ever recorded
• Analysis suggests that if repeated at a general election, Reform could secure over 400 seats—nearly a 200-seat majority—paving the way for Nigel Farage to become prime minister
• Reform has retained 95% of its 2024 backers while Labour and the Conservatives have each lost roughly half of their previous voters, most of whom have shifted to Reform UK
• Sir Keir Starmer records just 19% satisfaction—the lowest for any prime minister at this stage on record—while only 11% approve of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch
• Ipsos attributes Reform’s rise to its populist stance on immigration and Brexit and growing enthusiasm among working-class voters