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2d ago

Reform UK Surges in Polls Ahead of May 1 Elections, Challenging Labour and Conservatives

With national polling showing Reform UK tied with Labour and ahead of Conservatives, the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and local elections are shaping up as critical tests for all major parties.

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Overview

  • Reform UK is tied with Labour at 25% in national polls, with the Conservatives trailing at 21%, signaling a major shift in voter sentiment since the 2024 general election.
  • The Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury, is being closely watched as Labour defends a nearly 15,000-vote majority in a traditionally safe seat.
  • Reform UK is expected to gain 400-450 council seats in the local elections, potentially marking its most significant electoral breakthrough to date.
  • Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has publicly ruled out any formal pacts with Reform UK, despite reports of private discussions within her party about potential alliances.
  • Senior Conservative figures are urging calm and policy focus, warning against leadership changes or hasty deals with Reform despite mounting pressure from poor polling and expected seat losses.