Reform UK Predicted to Win Runcorn By-Election in Blow to Labour

Polls suggest Nigel Farage's party will take the seat as Labour faces challenges following its MP's resignation over assault conviction.

Reform UK is forecasted to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election with 40-42% of the vote, overturning Labour's previous 35-point lead.
The by-election was triggered by Labour MP Mike Amesbury's resignation after being convicted of assaulting a constituent in a drunken altercation.
Labour's candidate, Karen Shore, a local councillor and teacher, aims to retain the seat but faces challenges due to Labour's declining popularity and internal scandals.
Reform UK's campaign success comes despite internal turmoil, including the suspension of MP Rupert Lowe following allegations of threats and bullying.
This by-election is seen as a significant test for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer after eight months in office marked by policy controversies and slipping poll numbers.