Overview

• More in Common’s MRP model projects Reform UK on 290 seats in the House of Commons and Labour reduced to just 126 seats.
• YouGov’s forecast gives Reform UK 271 seats and Labour 178 seats, leaving no party with an outright majority.
• Poll projections indicate Reform UK would take 223 seats directly from Labour, flipping long-held heartland constituencies.
• Key Cumbrian constituencies such as Barrow, Carlisle, Penrith and the Solway and Workington and Whitehaven are now tipped for Reform UK.
• Starmer’s personal approval has fallen to –43, reflecting voter discontent over controversial welfare reforms and economic concerns.