Overview

• Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is forecasted to make significant gains, with private polling favoring them for mayoral wins in Greater Lincolnshire, Hull & East Yorkshire, and Doncaster.
• The local elections on May 1 will decide 1,641 council seats, four new mayoralties, and the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election, marking a critical test for all major parties.
• Conservatives, defending 954 council seats, face potential losses in traditional strongholds like Kent, as leader Kemi Badenoch acknowledges the party's vulnerability.
• Labour, grappling with early government challenges, risks setbacks in areas like Hull, where Reform and Liberal Democrats are gaining traction in a historically Labour-dominated region.
• The Liberal Democrats anticipate gains in Conservative-leaning areas, benefiting from a fractured right-wing vote, particularly in Cambridgeshire, Devon, and Gloucestershire.