Overview

• Reform UK, polling at 25%, is expected to secure hundreds of council seats and mayoralties in the May 1 local elections, marking a significant rise in its influence.
• Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer has acknowledged the elections will be challenging, with the Runcorn & Helsby by-election potentially flipping to Reform after Labour's former MP resigned following a conviction.
• The Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch, is bracing for the loss of up to 525 council seats, with Reform targeting disenchanted pro-Brexit voters in the Midlands and North.
• The Labour government plans to release an immigration white paper post-election, aiming to tighten legal migration rules in response to Reform's anti-immigration platform.
• Polling expert Sir John Curtice noted Reform's organizational strength, fielding 1,640 candidates—more than any other party in these elections.