Overview

• Reform polls 35% to Labour’s 20% with the Conservatives at 17%, per BMG’s 26–28 August survey of 1,504 GB adults.
• If repeated at a general election, the vote share would translate to an illustrative 400-seat landslide for Reform, BMG’s modelling suggests.
• On tackling Channel crossings, 41% trust Reform most versus 14% for Labour and 8% for the Conservatives.
• The poll followed Nigel Farage’s pledge to deport 600,000 migrants over five years, with 39% saying the goal looks achievable and 29% not.
• Leadership ratings show Farage at net +5 and Keir Starmer at a record low net -41, with BMG noting Reform’s support includes many former Conservative voters.