Overview
- A More in Common poll of 2,599 people, conducted between May 15 and 19, found 43% of the public now view Reform UK as the main party on the right while the Conservatives fell to 17%.
- Reform’s recent surge followed strong performances in local and devolved votes earlier this month, where the party picked up large numbers of council and regional seats.
- A Survation by‑election poll released late May shows a tight three‑way race in Makerfield with Labour on 43%, Reform on 40% and Restore Britain on 7%, making the seat a key test of Reform’s strength.
- Rupert Lowe’s Restore party is attracting some former Reform supporters and voters who are struggling financially, creating a new risk of splitting the right‑of‑centre vote.
- Regional and demographic divides sharpen the picture: men and certain areas are more likely to back Reform, and the coming by‑elections will show whether perception converts into lasting parliamentary gains.