Overview
- A YouGov poll conducted on May 18–19 places Reform UK at 29%, Labour at 22%, the Liberal Democrats at 17%, and the Conservatives at 16%.
- This marks the first time since 2019 that the Conservatives have fallen to fourth place in a major poll, their lowest-ever recorded support with YouGov.
- Electoral projections suggest Reform UK could secure 346 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives could drop to just 17 seats.
- Reform UK's rise is bolstered by local election wins earlier this month, including control of 10 councils, two mayoralties, and a by-election victory in Runcorn & Helsby.
- The poll results have intensified scrutiny on Kemi Badenoch's leadership, with growing internal and external pressure over the party's direction and strategy.