Overview
- Survation figures reported by Express.co.uk put Reform UK on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour on 12% in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, with the result still to come.
- Reform’s local operation has shifted to a professional, data-led model using AI vote projections and real-time canvassing inputs, according to GB News’ on-the-ground reporting.
- Campaigners say an open-door office policy is drawing residents in for direct conversations, with the party focused on turning out previously disengaged supporters.
- Caerphilly has backed Labour at Westminster since 1918, underscoring the symbolic weight of any upset in this long-held heartland.
- Labour figures cited in the coverage voice concern about the optics ahead of next year’s larger contests, while the poll also shows Plaid Cymru highly competitive.