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Reform UK Extends Lead: Caerphilly Poll Puts Party First, Greens Draw Level With Labour

Fragmented opposition under first-past-the-post leaves seat models projecting a dominant Reform position.

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Overview

  • A PLMR/Electoral Calculus MRP published this week projects Reform winning about 445 seats, with Labour on 73 and the Conservatives on 7 if a general election were held now.
  • The model drew on 7,449 interviews conducted September 10–18, and Electoral Calculus says tactical voting assumptions would lower Reform’s estimate to roughly 367 seats.
  • A Survation poll for Camlas ahead of next week’s Caerphilly Senedd by-election shows Reform on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour on 12% in a constituency Labour has never lost.
  • The Caerphilly survey of 501 voters indicates Labour’s 2021 base splitting toward Plaid and Reform and reports heavy Conservative-to-Reform switching.
  • A new FindOutNow national poll has Reform at 32%, the Conservatives at 16%, and Labour level with the Greens just behind, reinforcing mounting strain on both major parties.