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Reform UK Builds Momentum with Dual By-Election Wins and Seven-Point Lead

Reform UK’s triumph in councils from Llanelli to Canvey Island coupled with a seven-point poll lead underlines public discontent on immigration alongside high living costs.

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Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage in Las Vegas earlier this week (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Overview

  • A BMG Research poll puts Reform UK on 31 per cent support compared to Labour’s 24 per cent as the Conservatives slump to 18 per cent.
  • Reform UK secured council seats in Llanelli’s Lliedi ward and Canvey Island’s Winter Gardens, marking its first victory on Carmarthenshire County Council and its latest Essex gain.
  • Issue polling indicates the party commands an 18-point lead over Labour on immigration and also leads on the economy, cost of living and energy policy.
  • Labour’s policy U-turns, including restoring winter fuel payments, and Sir Keir Starmer’s direct attacks on Nigel Farage have narrowed the gap slightly but failed to reverse Reform UK’s momentum.
  • An Electoral Calculus projection suggests that if a general election were held now, Reform UK would win an outright majority of seats under current polling trends.