Overview

• Reform UK has reached its highest polling numbers in Scotland, with projections estimating 14 seats in the 2026 Holyrood election.
• The SNP remains the largest party in Scotland with 55 seats, though its support has declined from 2021 levels.
• Reform UK is gaining traction among younger voters, with 20% support in the 16-24 age group for the regional list vote.
• The Alba Party is projected to gain representation in the Scottish Parliament for the first time, securing one seat.
• Despite internal challenges and the absence of a Scottish leader, Reform UK is polling strongly in Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.