Overview

• A Camlas/Survation survey released Oct 16 for the Oct 23 Caerphilly by-election puts Reform on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour on 12% in a seat long dominated by Labour.
• A PLMR/Electoral Calculus MRP model of 7,449 adults (fielded Sept 10–18) projects Reform on 445 seats if a general election were held now, with Labour on 73 and the Conservatives on seven.
• Electoral Calculus’s tactical-voting scenario trims Reform’s projection to 367 seats, which would still represent a commanding majority.
• The modelling attributes Reform’s gains to steep drops in Labour and Conservative support in many of their currently held constituencies, putting senior figures such as Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Ed Miliband and Kemi Badenoch at risk.
• Poll findings highlight voter priorities led by the economy and cost of living (59%), immigration and border control (47%) and the NHS (44%), while analysts stress the results are snapshots sensitive to methodology and timing.