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Refining Strength Poised to Steady Reliance’s Q3 Results

Broker forecasts point to slight quarter-on-quarter improvement with year-on-year EBITDA growth easing to the high single digits.

Overview

  • Analysts expect consolidated revenue to rise about 1% sequentially to roughly Rs 2.57 lakh crore, EBITDA to increase 4.6% to around Rs 47,997 crore, and net profit to grow 6% to about Rs 19,271 crore.
  • Oil-to-chemicals EBITDA is forecast to advance 6–11% quarter on quarter and mid-teens year on year, aided by stronger refining margins supported by easing DubaiBrent and Saudi premia despite softer petrochemicals.
  • Exploration and production EBITDA is projected to drop about 12% quarter on quarter on lower realizations and volumes, the steepest decline in roughly 15 quarters.
  • Reliance Retail growth is expected to moderate due to a high base, GST rate rationalization, the RCPL demerger and split festive sales, with brokers penciling in low-to-mid single-digit EBITDA growth year on year.
  • Jio is seen adding subscribers to roughly 51.4 crore with ARPU inching up to about Rs 213, indicating steady operational gains for the telecom business.