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Reeves Weighs Tax Rises as OBR Downgrade Expands Budget Gap

Weaker OBR forecasts have blown open the Budget gap, forcing Reeves to rework tax plans before 26 November.

Overview

  • Treasury sources say more than 100 tax and spending options are being modelled for the Budget, with final decisions pending the OBR’s scoring.
  • Reporting indicates officials are using an internal threshold of about £45,000–£46,000 to define protected "working people," potentially exposing the top third of earners to new levies.
  • Defence Secretary John Healey said weaker forecasts will have "consequences" and declined to repeat Labour’s pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
  • The fiscal gap is estimated at roughly £30bn–£50bn after a productivity downgrade of about £20bn, and the IFS says filling a large buffer could equate to a four‑point rise in income tax or VAT.
  • Measures under consideration, according to reports, include higher council tax bands, changes to pension reliefs, capital gains increases and a possible exit charge, with some accounts saying NHS funding protection is a key motive; the Treasury declines to comment.