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Reeves Weighs Tax Rises as OBR Downgrade Deepens Budget Gap

Ministers warn weaker OBR forecasts will force difficult choices at the 26 November Budget.

Overview

  • Defence Secretary John Healey said there will be “consequences” from softer forecasts and declined to restate Labour’s pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
  • Income tax increases are under discussion, with scenarios reported from a 2p rise to the IFS’s view that up to 4p may be needed to build a sizeable fiscal buffer.
  • Whitehall sources say “working people” are being defined as earners at £45,000 or less, suggesting those above that threshold could be targeted by new measures.
  • Options reportedly include steep council tax rises for top bands or new higher bands, changes to pension tax reliefs and salary sacrifice, and a 20% “settling‑up” charge on people leaving for low‑tax jurisdictions.
  • The Treasury has refused to comment outside fiscal events, while reports say protecting planned NHS funding is a priority and final decisions will be set out on 26 November.