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Reeves Weighs Inheritance Tax Rollback as CEBR Flags £4.6 Billion Shortfall

Ministers are preparing to soften inheritance tax on trusts to prevent projected revenue and job losses.

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Overview

  • New CEBR modelling projects that if 25% of non-dom residents leave, the UK will lose £4.6 billion in tax revenue over five years and shed about 3,200 private-sector jobs.
  • The Treasury is exploring watering down inheritance tax on trusts, a concession advisers say could stem departures among wealthy foreign residents.
  • Companies House data show more than 4,400 company directors left the UK in the past year, with departures up 75% in April year-on-year.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility’s earlier 12–25% departure estimate has been coupled with Treasury warnings that high-earners’ behavioural responses pose an uncertain fiscal risk.
  • Opponents argue that reports of a mass wealth exodus are overstated, noting Henley & Partners and New World Wealth data account for just 0.3% of the UK’s millionaire population.