Overview

• The OBR’s pre-Budget forecast has reduced the Chancellor’s buffer, with reports indicating a £20bn–£40bn shortfall, commonly cited at about £30bn.
• Asylum spending is being targeted for savings, including a faster timetable to close hotels and potential relocation to military sites or disused student blocks.
• Ministers are considering changes to asylum-related benefits, though officials say decisions are still pending.
• Productivity is expected to be downgraded in the OBR’s outlook, a shift that could cut projected revenues by roughly £18bn–£20bn a year.
• Costs remain high across the system—£5.4bn in 2023–24—with hotel outlays cut to about £2.1bn for April 2024–March 2025 after nearly £1bn savings, while the NAO projects £15.3bn on accommodation over a decade.