Overview

• Treasury sources indicate the Chancellor will avoid significant new borrowing or broad spending cuts, turning to taxes on wealth, property and investment income in the 26 November Budget to build a larger fiscal buffer.
• The Institute for Fiscal Studies says tens of billions could be raised without breaching Labour’s pledge on income tax, VAT or employees’ national insurance, urging options such as ending capital gains tax uplift at death, reforming inheritance and council taxes, increasing bank levies and tightening enforcement.
• IFS guidance advises against an annual wealth tax, stamp duty hikes and raids on pension tax relief, though it notes a credibly one‑off wealth levy could be more efficient than a recurring version.
• New HMRC analysis cited in reporting suggests raising capital gains tax rates could cut receipts as investors delay sales, with a 10‑point rise estimated to reduce revenue by billions within a few years.
• Economists warn that extending freezes to personal tax thresholds would amount to breaking Labour’s promise to protect working people, and analysts highlight political and behavioural risks including wealth flight and avoidance.