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Reeves Signals Tax and Spending Moves as OBR Downgrade Widens Budget Gap

Economists warn only large tax increases or spending reductions can meet the fiscal rules given Labour’s pledge to spare income tax, VAT and employee national insurance.

Overview

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility’s productivity downgrade has added about £20bn to the expected shortfall ahead of the 26 November Budget, increasing pressure on the Chancellor’s limited headroom.
  • Rachel Reeves said in Riyadh that both tax rises and spending cuts are being examined and reiterated she will not breach the government’s fiscal rules.
  • Reported options under consideration include an annual 1% levy on the value of homes above £2m and possible changes to the 45p income tax rate or its threshold, though no decisions have been confirmed.
  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies and other economists caution that piecemeal levies could do more harm than transparent moves on major taxes or spending, and Mervyn King criticised a mansion tax as lacking a coherent strategy.
  • Alongside budget work, Reeves pursued growth plans in Saudi Arabia, expressing confidence in a GCC trade deal and announcing a £6.4bn two‑way trade and investment package.