Overview

• The Treasury confirmed the Budget date and commissioned the OBR with the required 10 weeks’ notice to deliver new economic and fiscal forecasts.
• Thirty‑year gilt yields reached roughly 5.74%–5.75%, the highest since 1998, while sterling weakened further against the dollar.
• A Downing Street reshuffle, including Darren Jones’s move to a new No 10 role and Minouche Shafik’s appointment as chief economic adviser, has prompted market questions over fiscal direction despite No 10 support for the Chancellor.
• Independent assessments suggest a gap of about £40bn–£51bn against the government’s fiscal rules, focusing debate on possible wealth and property tax changes, spending restraint, or efficiency reforms.
• Analysts cast the November statement as a test of commitments to cover day‑to‑day spending from revenues by 2029–30 and to put debt on a falling path.