Overview

• The Treasury confirmed the Budget will be held on 26 November and gave the Office for Budget Responsibility the required 10 weeks’ notice to produce forecasts.
• Thirty-year UK gilt yields have risen to their highest since 1998 and sterling has weakened, sharpening investor scrutiny and lifting debt-interest costs.
• Rachel Reeves said she will keep a tight grip on day-to-day spending under her fiscal rules and stick to commitments not to raise income tax, employee national insurance or VAT.
• Independent forecasters estimate a shortfall of roughly £40–£51bn by 2029/30, citing weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and recent policy reversals, with the Resolution Foundation noting over £3bn more in annual debt interest.
• Advisers and sources say revenue options under consideration target wealthier taxpayers, including potential changes to capital gains tax, inheritance and property levies, and a gambling duty, though no decisions have been taken.