Overview
- The OBR is set to downgrade growth every year to 2029, shrinking revenues and deepening the fiscal challenge Reeves must address.
- Reeves told Labour MPs the Budget is a single package and urged unity, saying most of it will please them while prioritising living costs, NHS waits and debt interest.
- Investors and analysts warn that relying on multiple tax rises without clear spending restraint could unsettle gilt and currency markets.
- An income tax rate hike has been dropped, with expectations focusing on extended freezes to income tax and National Insurance thresholds and a raft of smaller measures.
- Pre-Budget signals include a confirmed rail fares freeze in England and a planned state pension rise, with reports suggesting a possible lift of the two‑child benefits cap and other options still under consideration.