Overview
- New analysis estimates abolishing the policy would lift 330,000 children from poverty now and prevent 150,000 more by 2029-30 at about £3.5bn a year, with the IFS putting the cost near £3.6bn.
- Without changes, child poverty is projected to reach about 34% by 2029-30, or roughly 4.8 million children.
- The Treasury is examining partial options such as raising the limit to three or four children or tapering payments, which the thinktank says would still leave poverty rates higher than today.
- Senior Labour figures including Dame Meg Hillier and John McDonnell urge full abolition, with warnings of a backbench revolt if the Budget contains only half-measures.
- The government points to an upcoming Child Poverty Taskforce plan, citing £500m for Best Start Family Hubs, expanded free school meals and a £1bn crisis support package.