Overview

• Rachel Reeves is receiving new Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that assume the temporary 5p per litre cut ends in March with duty then rising in line with inflation.
• The decision point is the November 26 Budget, where the Chancellor will set out whether to maintain the cut or restore duty.
• Fuel duty has been effectively frozen since 2011, with the additional 5p cut introduced in 2022 during the energy price shock.
• Maintaining the freeze and 5p cut would cost over £3 billion next year, according to recent reporting cited in the coverage.
• Campaigners and some commentators warn motorists could face larger increases if the cut is scrapped, though those projections are speculative and not government policy.