Overview
- Government insiders and multiple outlets report the Chancellor is expected to announce the end of the 2017 two-child limit on Universal Credit and tax credits at Wednesday’s Budget, with the i Paper saying it is likely to be scrapped in full.
- The rule blocks support for third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017, and latest official data show about 1.6 million children live in families affected.
- Costings vary: the IFS puts full reversal at roughly £3.6bn a year with around 600,000 children lifted out of poverty, while CPAG and others estimate smaller bills and reductions closer to 350,000; cheaper partial options are still being weighed.
- New DWP figures highlight concentrated gains if the cap goes, including more than 260,000 children and 72,600 households in London and roughly 40,000 children affected across Merseyside.
- Pressure has built from charities and Labour MPs who previously rebelled over the policy, even as polling shows most voters favour keeping the cap and Conservatives warn of higher taxes to fund welfare.