Overview
- The Treasury received a second draft of the OBR forecast, with a productivity downgrade expected and a Budget gap widely put at £20–30bn, with some estimates higher.
- Reeves will announce an effort to strip out £6bn of "pointless" business regulation in hopes the OBR credits growth effects that could limit further tax rises.
- Major trade bodies including the British Chambers of Commerce, Federation of Small Businesses, Institute of Directors and TheCityUK have urged the Chancellor not to raise business taxes and to prioritise pro-growth reforms.
- Travel bosses at Tui and Jet2 warn higher levies would force up holiday prices, with Jet2 citing a £25m hit from last year’s employer NI rise and a risk that a weak market reaction could depress sterling and lift costs.
- Reeves is framing weak productivity as partly rooted in the post-Brexit deal, citing the OBR’s 4% long‑term hit, as critics highlight her £40–44bn in prior tax hikes and a drop in the UK’s tax competitiveness rankings.