Overview

• In a conference speech in Liverpool, the chancellor warned of hard choices and refused to guarantee protections such as avoiding an extension of the income tax threshold freeze, saying "the world has changed."
• Independent estimates suggest a funding gap in the tens of billions of pounds—reported as high as about £50bn—raising the prospect of tax rises or spending cuts in the 26 November Autumn Budget.
• Reeves reaffirmed strict fiscal rules and rejected calls to loosen them, invoking the risks of market instability seen in 2022 and cautioning that she will take no risks with economic trust.
• Policy announcements included a Youth Guarantee with paid placements for young people out of work for 18 months, libraries in every primary school, and advancing Northern Powerhouse Rail, with consideration of shifting to one main OBR forecast each year.
• Market voices warned of potential broad‑based tax measures, think tanks floated options that reach average earners, and ministers indicated VAT is unlikely to rise but stopped short of firm tax pledges.