Overview

• At Labour conference, the chancellor declined to guarantee she will not extend the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond their current 2028 end date.
• She offered no explicit assurance on VAT, saying only that the manifesto “stands,” while repeating a pledge to keep taxes on working people as low as possible.
• Reeves cited “global headwinds” and higher borrowing costs as constraints on the Budget and backed moving to a single annual OBR forecast.
• House of Commons Library research indicates prolonging the threshold freeze could raise about £10.4bn and leave around 1.3 million taxpayers roughly £285 worse off on average by 2030.
• The Resolution Foundation proposes a 2p shift from employee National Insurance to income tax raising about £6bn, while Demos outlines eight reforms worth about £21bn; the Treasury says tax decisions come at fiscal events.