Overview

• The National Institute of Economic and Social Research warns of a £50 billion shortfall driven by weaker growth and higher borrowing costs
• Reeves has pledged not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT and to uphold fiscal rules preventing additional borrowing
• Her Treasury has launched a review of gambling levies and is weighing other selective tax hikes for the November Budget
• Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has written to Sir Keir Starmer demanding guarantees that income tax and NI thresholds will not be frozen beyond 2028
• Analysts question whether targeted levies alone can plug the gap without service cuts as Reeves finalises plans for the autumn Budget