Overview
- The Autumn Budget is due on 26 November, with Rachel Reeves vowing to “grip the cost of living” and confirming a freeze on rail fares in England for the first time in 30 years.
- An explicit rise in income tax rates has been shelved, with an extension of frozen income and national insurance thresholds to 2030 widely expected; the IFS estimates this could raise about £8.3bn a year by 2029/30.
- Reported revenue measures include capping tax‑free pension salary‑sacrifice contributions at around £2,000, higher charges on expensive properties, a pay‑per‑mile system for electric vehicles, and increased gambling taxes.
- Reeves is reported to be scrapping the two‑child benefit cap, a move expected to cost more than £3bn annually, even as the Treasury seeks additional income to improve fiscal headroom.
- Political pressure is intensifying as Kemi Badenoch claims threshold freezes would breach Labour’s pledge and Mel Stride urges Reeves to resign if she raises taxes, while estimates of the fiscal shortfall range from roughly £20bn to £50bn.