Overview
- CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten now sees Democrats as more likely to net House seats from mid‑decade redistricting, reversing earlier expectations of a Republican advantage of about five seats.
- Enten said the updated approximation could end in a tie or a Democratic gain of two to three seats, stressing that the figures remain estimates as legal and map processes continue.
- State projections he cited include roughly five Democratic pickups in California and one in Utah after a court ruling, with Republican gains in Texas scaled back to three or four and potential single-seat GOP pickups in North Carolina and Ohio.
- Possible additional shifts under discussion include a Democratic pickup in New York and a move to an 8–0 Democratic map in Maryland, with Democrats eyeing up to three in Virginia and Republicans potentially adding three in Florida and one in Missouri.
- A New York judge threw out the lines of the city’s lone GOP-held House district and ordered a redraw by February 6, a decision Republicans are expected to appeal, underscoring how court actions are shaping the national map.