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Redistricting Forecast Flips Toward Democrats, CNN Analyst Says

Recent court decisions plus new maps flipped early expectations.

Overview

  • CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten now sees Democrats as more likely to net House seats from mid‑decade redistricting, reversing earlier expectations of a Republican advantage of about five seats.
  • Enten said the updated approximation could end in a tie or a Democratic gain of two to three seats, stressing that the figures remain estimates as legal and map processes continue.
  • State projections he cited include roughly five Democratic pickups in California and one in Utah after a court ruling, with Republican gains in Texas scaled back to three or four and potential single-seat GOP pickups in North Carolina and Ohio.
  • Possible additional shifts under discussion include a Democratic pickup in New York and a move to an 8–0 Democratic map in Maryland, with Democrats eyeing up to three in Virginia and Republicans potentially adding three in Florida and one in Missouri.
  • A New York judge threw out the lines of the city’s lone GOP-held House district and ordered a redraw by February 6, a decision Republicans are expected to appeal, underscoring how court actions are shaping the national map.