Overview

• The USDA forecasts a 425 million tonne U.S. corn crop for 2025–26, driven by drought-tolerant genetically modified seeds and federal support programs.
• Chicago corn futures have tumbled by roughly 26%, sliding from $198 to $146 per tonne since February.
• An 8% peso depreciation and lower international benchmarks have cut Mexican yellow-maize reference prices by 22% and white maize by 20%.
• Mexico’s grain and oilseed imports reached 27.9 million tonnes in January–July 2025, with white corn shipments jumping to 658,000 tonnes and record volumes of sorghum, soybean meal and oats.
• Mexican farmers, especially medium and large producers, face shrinking profits without guaranteed prices or risk-management tools even as feed and processing industries gain from cheaper inputs.