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Record Thanksgiving Travel Tests U.S. Transport as Weather Threatens Disruptions

Forecasters warn that evolving storms—not staffing—pose the biggest risk following the FAA’s post-shutdown recovery.

AUSTIN, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 24: An aerial view of vehicles travelling along the Loop 1 highway on November 24, 2025 in Austin, Texas. The AAA is expecting record-breaking travel during this year's Thanksgiving, making it the state's busiest Thanksgiving travel season in 15 years. An estimated total of 5.8 million people will be traveling by road and the skies over the upcoming week. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Travelers at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) in Newark, New Jersey, US, on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025. Fewer US travelers are due to fly over the upcoming Thanksgiving holidays, with Christmas demand also looking shaky, after a record US government shutdown and concern about the economy weighed on would-be flyers. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Cars travel on Highway 101 in Novato in 2024. The trip from San Francisco to Santa Rosa on Highway 101 on Tuesday is expected to be one of the most congested in the Bay Area for the Thanksgiving holiday week— taking about 2 hours and 34 minutes around 7:15 p.m., roughly 114% longer than usual.
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Overview

  • AAA projects about 81.8–82 million people traveling 50 miles or more through Dec. 1, with roughly 73 million driving and about 6 million flying.
  • The FAA expects the busiest Thanksgiving air period in about 15 years with more than 360,000 flights scheduled, after a Tuesday peak of over 52,000 and a heavy return on Sunday.
  • TSA anticipates screening roughly 17.8 million passengers for the week, including more than 3 million on Sunday, one of the busiest days in its history.
  • Airlines and airports have added capacity, with Airlines for America forecasting more than 31 million passengers as major hubs like O’Hare and LAX brace for crowds.
  • Weather already caused localized delays and a brief ground stop in Atlanta on Tuesday, with winter and severe storms forecast for parts of the Plains, Midwest and key East Coast hubs into the return period.