Overview
- Climate centres including the WMO and NOAA report an exceptionally strong El Niño in the central‑eastern tropical Pacific that is intensifying and expected to peak around December with effects into early 2027.
- The Climate Impact Lab's updated El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker now projects roughly 370,000–451,000 additional heat‑related deaths over the next six months and much larger cumulative estimates for June 2026–March 2027.
- The tracker identifies national hotspots with the biggest projected tolls, with roughly 56,000 extra deaths in Nigeria, about 55,000 in India, roughly 29,000 in Indonesia and about 19,000 in Brazil for the October–March window.
- Regional forecasts show divergent impacts: warmer‑than‑normal winters across much of Canada with drier, higher fire risk in the West and altered seasonal rainfall patterns across the United States, Europe, Latin America and parts of Africa.
- Humanitarian agencies warn of rising food insecurity and strained relief needs and urge anticipatory action such as early warnings, expanded healthcare and cooling access to reduce deaths and protect vulnerable communities.