Overview
- The U.S. weather agency reported Monday that there is better than an 80% chance this El Niño will strengthen to be the strongest event since 1950 by the end of the year.
- Observations show very large sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, with the key monitoring region more than 2°C above normal and parts of the basin more than 4°C warmer than usual.
- Early seasonal effects have already appeared, with a notably weak Atlantic hurricane season and stronger tropical activity in the Pacific this summer.
- Germany’s national weather service warns a strong El Niño raises the probability of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances and more frequent negative NAO phases that can allow January–February cold intrusions into Europe, but it says El Niño alone does not determine winter weather.
- Scientists say the event increases risks of droughts, heavy rains and heat extremes worldwide, and they urge continued monitoring of ocean buoys and forecasts because rapid development and funding threats to observations could hamper early warning of extreme impacts.