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3mo ago

Record-Hot Year Signals Likely Breach of 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold

Two new studies suggest Earth may have entered a 20-year period where average temperatures exceed the critical 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement.

People walking on the dry bed of the Tapajos river during an intense drought, in Tapajos National Forest, Para state, Brazil October 10, 2024.
The devastation from the Palisades Fire is shown in an aerial view in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025.
Stranded boats over the sandbanks exposed due to drought at the Solimoes River, one of the largest tributaries of the Amazon River, near Manacapuru, Amazonas state, Brazil September 30, 2024.
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Overview

  • Global temperatures in 2024 averaged 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the hottest year on record and exceeding the 1.5°C threshold for the first time.
  • The studies, published in Nature Climate Change, indicate that even a single year or 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C warming may signal a long-term breach of this critical limit.
  • Researchers from Europe and Canada found that such temperature spikes historically correlate with a 20-year period of sustained warming at the same level.
  • While the 2024 El Niño event contributed to the record heat, scientists emphasize that human-driven climate change remains the dominant factor.
  • Experts warn that urgent and stringent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to limit further warming and reduce the risks of exceeding 1.5°C long-term.