Overview
- Independent Copernicus services reported June global sea-surface temperatures of about 20.86–21.0 °C, the highest for this time of year and above 2023–2024 values.
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has declared El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, and C3S/ECMWF seasonal ensembles indicate the event could reach intensities not seen in decades.
- Scientists say the ocean stores most excess heat so a strong El Niño can release large amounts of that heat to the atmosphere several months later, raising global temperatures.
- Climate models and experts warn that the combined effect of a strong El Niño and long-term human-driven ocean warming makes late 2026 through mid-2027 a period of elevated risk and increases the chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
- Foreseeable impacts include more frequent and intense marine heatwaves, greater storm and flood risk, stresses on fisheries and coastal economies, and higher odds of drought and heat extremes in some regions.