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Record Ethanol Output and Big Export Sales Recast U.S. Grain Outlook

Record ethanol output with robust export bookings is lifting demand expectations across the grain complex.

Overview

  • Corn found support after EIA reported a record 1.196 million barrels per day of ethanol production, with stocks rising and refiner inputs higher.
  • USDA export data showed 1.14 MMT of corn sales for the week of January 8 and private corn sales totaling 500,302 MT, alongside South Korean purchase tenders.
  • Soybean demand signals strengthened on 2.06 MMT in weekly sales led by China and a separate 334,000 MT private sale to China, with NOPA December crush at 224.991 million bushels.
  • Wheat faced pressure from modest weekly bookings of 156,255 MT before a Friday rebound, as total commitments reached 20.392 MMT, 15% above last year.
  • Livestock diverged with hogs extending a rally on solid export bookings and firmer cutout values, while cattle turned sharply lower Friday as traders tracked new USDAAPHIS screwworm cases in Mexico, including six in Tamaulipas.