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Record Early Turnout and Youth Surge Set the Stage for NYC Mayor’s Election Day

Younger voters led early participation, raising questions about whether a larger Tuesday electorate could tighten Zohran Mamdani’s lead.

Overview

  • New York City recorded 735,317 early voting check-ins over nine days, more than quadruple the 2021 general election’s early total, according to the Board of Elections.
  • Voters 55 and under accounted for 56% of early ballots and the median age of in-person early voters was 50, signaling a late generational shift in participation.
  • Most recent polls still show Mamdani ahead of Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa — including a PIX11/Emerson survey at 50%-25%-21% — though an AtlasIntel poll trimmed the gap to 6.6 points; betting markets give Mamdani roughly a 93%–95% chance.
  • Analysts project total turnout could reach 1.5–2 million and say a larger electorate may draw more moderates and independents, a dynamic seen as potentially helpful to Cuomo as Sliwa remains in the race.
  • Only U.S. citizens can vote after a state Court of Appeals ruling struck down the city’s noncitizen voting law, and polls are open Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.