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Record 88% Matric Result Triggers Fresh Scrutiny of South Africa’s School Pipeline

Analysts urge cohort-based measures to reflect retention and access.

Overview

  • Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube announced a national National Senior Certificate result of 88%, the highest to date, with KwaZulu-Natal reported as the top-performing province.
  • Experts argue the headline number overstates system performance, citing a cohort-based success rate of about 57.7% from Grade 1 and an alternative calculation of roughly 80% when using all candidates who wrote.
  • The Eastern Cape slipped to 84.17%, and MEC Fundile Gade warned of a widening school–tertiary gap, noting that 392,527 learners were phased out between 2021 and 2025 and urging universities to align capacity with school throughput.
  • Teacher union SADTU rejected claims of a so‑called 30% pass mark, defended the NSC, and flagged a drop in Mathematics to a 64% pass rate from 69.1%, cautioning against steering learners to Mathematical Literacy.
  • Data show the pass rate for social grant beneficiaries fell to 78% from 86%, and the department said it will work with Social Development to prevent loss of grants during learners’ matric year.