Overview
- Roughly 300,000 Bitcoin option contracts worth about $23.6 billion are set to lapse on Dec. 26, the largest expiry yet.
- More than half of Deribit’s open interest will be affected as dealers remove delta and gamma hedges, which can force spot buying or selling.
- Analysts flag concentrated exposure between $86,000 and $110,000 with a max-pain zone around $95,000–$96,000.
- Downside interest at $85,000 puts has eased while $100,000 calls remain active, pointing to cautious upside positioning.
- Participants are focused on post-expiry direction, with history showing 5–7% year-end moves after open interest clears and Bitcoin holding in an $85,000–$90,000 range into the event.