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Record 2025 Emissions Underscore Strained COP30 Negotiations

Dozens of countries lack updated 2035 plans, prompting the Brazilian presidency to hold informal consultations.

Overview

  • Global CO2 from fossil fuels is projected to rise 1.1% in 2025 to about 38.1 gigatonnes, with scientists warning the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget is roughly four years of current emissions.
  • COP30 talks in Belém are tense, with Brazil convening informal consultations on ambition, finance, trade and data transparency as more than 80 nations still have not filed updated NDCs for 2035.
  • The European Union arrived with an internal compromise that allows up to 5% international carbon credits and delays the expansion of its carbon market to road transport and building heat to 2028, drawing NGO criticism.
  • China signaled its first quantified reduction pledge of about 7% to 10% by 2035, while 2025 emissions are estimated to edge up around 0.4% and coal remains a major part of its power mix.
  • Indigenous activists attempted to enter the COP30 venue to demand greater representation and were pushed back by security, with AFP reporting a police officer was evacuated on a stretcher.