Overview
- The Global Carbon Budget estimates fossil CO2 at about 38.1 gigatonnes in 2025, up 1.1% year over year, with total emissions near 42 gigatonnes and atmospheric CO2 around 425.7 ppm.
- Scientists say the remaining carbon space consistent with a 1.5°C limit is roughly 170 gigatonnes CO2 and would be used before 2030 if emissions persist at current levels.
- Natural sinks are weakening, with land uptake down about 25% and ocean uptake down roughly 7–8%, while land‑use emissions fall to about 4.1 gigatonnes and Amazon deforestation hits its lowest level since 2014.
- Regional trends diverge: the United States rises about 1.9%, India about 1.4%, China roughly 0.4% with uncertainty tied to strong renewables growth, and the EU about 0.4%, as aviation and shipping climb to an estimated 1.2 gigatonnes.
- IEA’s World Energy Outlook says renewables grow fastest in every scenario; oil demand peaks around 2030 and declines to roughly 100 mb/d by 2035 in one pathway, while a reinstated Current Policies Scenario projects no peak before 2050 and as high as about 113 mb/d, with reporting noting increased LNG capacity by 2030 and media accounts of U.S. pressure on the agency.