Recession Risk Rises to Nearly 50% as Inflation and Growth Slow

Economic uncertainty grows with revised Federal Reserve forecasts and concerns over President Trump's tariff policies.

The probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is estimated between 36% and 50%, according to new surveys by Deutsche Bank and CNBC.
The Federal Reserve has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, the slowest rate since 2011 (excluding 2020), and raised core inflation expectations to 2.8%.
President Trump's evolving tariff policies are cited as a key factor contributing to economic uncertainty, with experts warning they could lead to stagflation.
Consumer confidence and spending have declined, reflecting public fears of a recession despite low unemployment and mixed economic indicators.
Financial experts recommend strategies such as reducing high-interest debt, building emergency savings, and diversifying investments to prepare for potential economic challenges.