Overview

• President Donald Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on all imports, effective April 5, 2025, intensifying trade tensions.
• Prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi now show over 50% odds of a U.S. recession in 2025, with Polymarket at 56% and Kalshi at 54%.
• JPMorgan increased its recession risk estimate to 40%, up from 30%, citing the economic impact of Trump's trade policies.
• Economists have revised their forecasts, warning of heightened recession risks and projecting slower U.S. GDP growth.
• Stock markets have experienced sharp declines, and consumer confidence continues to weaken following the tariff announcement.