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2w ago

Recession Fears Surge as Trump's Tariffs Shake U.S. Economy

Economists raise recession odds to as high as 60% following rapid tariff escalation, though strong job growth tempers immediate concerns.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 07: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 07, 2025 in New York City. All three major stock indexes dipped again at the opening of the stock market for the third straight day with the Dow Jones dropping over 1000 points and the S & P 500 nearing bear market territory amid U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs and other countries' retaliations. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • President Trump's sweeping tariff increases, including a 10% duty on nearly all countries, have triggered record market losses and heightened economic uncertainty.
  • Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now estimate recession probabilities at 45% and 60%, respectively, if the tariffs remain in place long-term.
  • The U.S. stock market experienced a historic $6.6 trillion two-day loss in shareholder value following the tariff announcements.
  • Despite recession concerns, March job growth exceeded expectations, and layoffs remain historically low, complicating the economic outlook.
  • Economists warn that prolonged tariffs could raise costs for businesses, reduce hiring and investment, and dampen consumer spending, potentially tipping the economy into contraction.